If you've priced a DDR5 kit, a laptop or a new phone lately, you've noticed the bill. Type "why is RAM so expensive" into Google and the first suggestion it adds is "right now". The short answer is AI.
Here's what's going on, using the most recent numbers from TrendForce (a memory market research firm) and IDC (which tracks device shipments).
The short version
Memory chips are made in a small number of factories by a small number of companies. Right now, those factories are being pointed at AI servers: high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that sits next to AI chips, and large server DRAM modules. Those products earn more, so they get capacity first. The DDR5 in your PC and the LPDDR in your phone get what's left.
TrendForce's Sept 30, 2026 memory outlook says DRAM suppliers continue to prioritize advanced-process capacity for high-performance server products, "keeping the overall market undersupplied."
What prices are doing
| Product (contract prices) | TrendForce Q4 2026 forecast (Sept 30, 2026) |
|---|---|
| Conventional DRAM | +10–15% quarter over quarter |
| NAND flash | +15–20% quarter over quarter |
| Enterprise SSD | Growth accelerating, the only category to rise faster than the previous quarter |
So prices are still rising, just more slowly. An Oct 20 TrendForce News item, citing the Taiwanese paper Commercial Times, puts the Q4 DRAM rise at about 20%, down from roughly 80% in Q2 and 40% in Q3. Different sources, same story: smaller increases on top of very large ones.
These are contract prices: what big buyers like PC makers pay suppliers. The RAM kit price you see in a store is a different number, but it's fed by the same squeeze.
Who's paying for it
Phones. IDC's Oct 14, 2026 release says global smartphone shipments fell 22.0% year over year in Q3 2026, to 255.3 million units. That's the biggest drop IDC has recorded for any quarter. Nabila Popal, an IDC senior research director, said memory costs have "surged approximately 350% since last year and are still rising."
PCs. IDC's Oct 8, 2026 headline: PC shipments fell 20.1% in Q3 2026, as the market dealt with supply constraints and high prices.
Laptops getting less storage. TrendForce says PC brands are cutting SSD capacity in mainstream models to lower costs. If a 2026 laptop ships with less storage than last year's model at the same price, this is why.
Graphics cards. TrendForce says GDDR7 supply is limited because capacity is going to server DRAM, and suppliers are pulling back from GDDR6. It expects graphics memory prices to keep climbing.
When will it end?
Nobody can promise a date, but the forecasts aren't encouraging:
- TrendForce says PC OEMs are buying aggressively because they expect DRAM supply to stay tight in 2027, and PC DRAM supply could decline in 2027 as more capacity moves to servers.
- TrendForce expects HBM to stay supply-constrained in 2027, with blended HBM prices up 121% year over year.
- IDC expects smartphone growth to be constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the least.
One wildcard is new supply from China. TrendForce News reports that CXMT is developing a denser 4F² DRAM design, but the timing of mass production is uncertain and full commercialization is expected after 2028. So it's no near-term fix.
What to do if you're buying
- Buy for what you need now. If you're waiting for a price crash, the forecasts above don't support one soon.
- Check memory before anything else on a laptop spec sheet. Memory is usually soldered, so you can't upgrade later. Pay for the RAM you'll need in three years.
- For local AI, VRAM matters more than system RAM. See How much VRAM do you need to run an LLM locally?
- Consider renting. For short AI jobs, an hourly cloud GPU can beat buying hardware at today's prices. Our GPU rental price guide compares rates.
Want the deeper version of the AI side? Read HBM explained.
