Most remarketing lists are built on what people already did: visited the pricing page, added to cart, opened an email. GA4 predictive audiences flip that around. Google Analytics uses machine learning to estimate what each user is likely to do next, and you can target the users most likely to buy, or most likely to leave.
This guide explains how GA4 predictive audiences work, the data your property needs before they unlock, how to create one and how to use it in Google Ads. Every requirement comes from Google's own help pages, linked throughout.
What GA4 predictive metrics are
A predictive audience is "an audience with at least one condition based on a predictive metric" (Google Analytics Help). GA4 calculates these metrics (predictive metrics):
| Metric | What it predicts |
|---|---|
| Purchase probability | The probability that a user active in the last 28 days logs a specific key event within the next 7 days |
| Churn probability | The probability that a user active in the last 7 days is not active in the next 7 days |
| Predicted revenue | Revenue expected from all purchase key events in the next 28 days from a user active in the last 28 days |
Purchase probability and predicted revenue currently work with the purchase and in_app_purchase events (ecommerce_purchase is still processed, but Google now recommends purchase). Predictions are generated once per day for each active user.
Google also says it does not use the standard GA4 demographic dimensions to train these models. They are trained on behavioral event data from your site and app.
GA4 predictive audiences requirements
This is where most small sites get stuck. To train the models, GA4 needs enough positive and negative examples (predictive metrics):
- Volume: in the last 28 days, over a seven-day period, at least 1,000 returning users must have triggered the predictive condition (a purchase, or churn) and at least 1,000 returning users must not have.
- Sustained model quality: quality has to hold over time. If it drops below the minimum, GA4 stops updating that prediction and it may become unavailable.
- Purchase events with value and currency: to be eligible for purchase probability and predicted revenue, send the
purchaseevent (and/orin_app_purchase) with thevalueandcurrencyparameters.
You can check eligibility in the predictive section of the suggested audience templates. If your site isn't there yet, the useful work is upstream: clean ecommerce events and consistent UTM tracking so the data is ready when volume arrives.
How to create a predictive audience in GA4
Google's steps (predictive audiences):
- In Admin, under "Data display", click Audiences. You need the Marketer role or above at the property level.
- Click New audience.
- Under "Suggested audiences", click Predictive. Templates that meet the prerequisites are labeled "Ready to use".
- Pick a template and adjust it in the audience builder, or build a custom audience and choose a predictive metric as a condition.
For each predictive condition you can choose Most likely (the top N% of users), Least likely (the bottom N%) or a Custom percentage range. Two suggested templates show how the defaults work:
- Likely 7-day purchasers: users whose purchase probability is above the 90th percentile, roughly the top 10%.
- Likely 7-day churning users: the default churn configuration includes the 80th to 100th percentile, the top 20%.
A wider range includes more users, but a bigger share of them are less likely to do the thing you predicted. Start with the default and widen it only if the audience is too small to serve ads.
How to use predictive audiences in Google Ads
Predictive audiences are automatically shared with advertising accounts linked to your property, such as Google Ads, Display & Video 360 and Search Ads 360 (predictive audiences). Once your GA4 property and Google Ads account are linked, the audience appears in Google Ads and you can add it to campaigns.
Google suggests two main uses:
- Remarketing to likely purchasers. Users close to converting may need one last, relevant nudge.
- Re-engaging likely churners. These users showed interest before. Remind them of the value you offer, or make a specific offer.
Make sure Google Ads auto-tagging is on. Google says it is needed to import Google Ads cost and campaign data into Analytics and to import key events into Google Ads, and it is on by default for new accounts (Google Ads Help).
One caveat to plan around: if your property becomes ineligible and new predictions stop, exported predictive audiences stop accumulating new users. Check eligibility before you build a campaign that depends on one.
Test it before you trust it
A prediction is a ranking, not a result. Run the predictive audience against a comparable non-predictive audience, or as a controlled experiment, and compare cost per acquisition on real conversions. The same rule applies to ad creative: our guide to predictive creative testing shows how to confirm AI predictions with Google Ads experiments.
Keep reading
- UTM tracking setup: a naming guide for AI-built sites
- Predictive creative testing: how to test AI ad creatives before you spend
- Own your code and data: why it matters when you build with AI
FAQ
What are GA4 predictive audiences?
GA4 predictive audiences are audiences with at least one condition based on a predictive metric, such as purchase probability or churn probability, which Google Analytics calculates with machine learning.
Why are predictive metrics not available in my GA4 property?
Usually because of volume. GA4 needs at least 1,000 returning users who triggered the condition and 1,000 who did not, over a seven-day period in the last 28 days, and sustained model quality.
How do I use a GA4 predictive audience in Google Ads?
Link your GA4 property to Google Ads. Predictive audiences are shared automatically with linked advertising accounts, and you can then add them to campaigns.
Who can create predictive audiences in GA4?
You need the Marketer role or above at the property level. Create them in Admin, Audiences, New audience, then Predictive under suggested audiences.